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Who Will Become The Next Senior? How Generative AI Erodes The Development Pathway In Software Engineering

Authors
Sumin Yu,
Taesup Moon
Date
Publisher
arXiv
Generative AI (GenAI) is reshaping software engineering, raising concerns about how the development pathway through which juniors become seniors is being eroded. While macro statistics show a decline in junior hiring and controlled studies demonstrate the effects of AI on individual task performance, the mechanisms through which GenAI reshapes early-career development in real organizational and educational contexts have not been thoroughly examined. Through 14 semi-structured interviews with juniors at the threshold of entering software engineering and senior software engineers in South Korea, analyzed using Reflexive Thematic Analysis, we reveal a foundational pattern of Absorption -- GenAI redirects entry-level work into senior-AI workflows -- and three consequences: (1) juniors losing the productive struggle through which expertise once developed; (2) the structural reproduction of this loss through collective normalization of GenAI use in university classrooms; and (3) the perceptual asymmetry between seniors and juniors that prevents either side from correcting these dynamics on their own. By extending learning theory and situated cognition to organizational and institutional scales, we argue that GenAI appears to be absorbing not just specific categories of tasks but also parts of the pathway through which the next generation of seniors is formed. Preserving this pathway will require deliberate institutional design across classrooms, workplaces, and the evaluation criteria for juniors.
Study at a glance
  • Question: How is generative AI changing the pathway for junior software engineers to become seniors?
  • Setting and data: South Korea; 14 junior and senior software engineers.
  • Method: Interviews (reflexive thematic analysis)
Why it matters

Generative AI raises concerns about how the development pathway from junior to senior software engineer is being eroded. Yet, the mechanisms through which it reshapes early-career development in real organizational and educational contexts have not been thoroughly examined.

Key findings
  • In South Korea, interviews with 14 junior and senior software engineers revealed that generative AI absorbs entry-level tasks, eroding professional development pathways.
  • Junior engineers reported losing the productive struggle needed to develop expertise, reinforced by the normalized use of generative AI in university classrooms.
  • Perceptual differences between senior and junior engineers prevented either group from independently correcting generative AI's disruption to career growth.

Summary drafted with AI from the paper’s abstract and may contain errors. See the full paper for details.

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